今年以来中国经济增速出现明显放缓,经济形势较为严峻;从经济先行指标和经济增长动力来看,未来经济发展态势仍不容乐观。在此背景下,5月下旬以来,宏观调控政策已转向实质性宽松,预计6月后将出台更多“促增长”的宏观政策。预计年内至少还有1次降息可能性,幅度约为0.25个百分点,时间可能在三季度;但如果出现经济增速非预期性的下滑,不排除央行再进行2次降息的可能性。下半年存款准备金率还将降低2～3次,每次50个基点,7月份是重要的调整窗口期。就商业银行而言,当前及未来一段时期内需警惕在经营风险加大的情况下,利差收益不升反降的矛盾。 Since the beginning of this year, the economic growth in China has obviously slowed down and the economic situation is grim. According to the indicators of economic advance and the driving force of economic growth, the economic development in the future is still not optimistic. Against this backdrop, macroeconomic control policies have turned substantively loose since late May, and it is expected that more macroeconomic policies will be promulgated in June after this year. It is estimated that there will be at least one other rate cut possible during the year, about 0.25 percentage points, possibly in the third quarter; however, if the unexpected decline in economic growth does not rule out the possibility of another rate cut by the central bank. In the second half of the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced 2 to 3 times, each time 50 basis points, July is an important window to adjust the window. For commercial banks, the current and future period of time should be vigilant in the case of business risk increases, the spread of interest-rate differential rise and fall contradictory.