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由于碳排放趋势影响未来的气候变化趋势,也是各国进行减排谈判的基础,因此得到了公众和政府的普遍关注。本文运用碳排放动力学模型,预测了不同经济发展水平下中国、美国、波兰三国2009年-2050年的能源碳排放量,并对三国碳排放总量分别进行了情景分析。结果表明:①三国碳排放量都呈现先升后降的趋势,中、美、波分别在2035年,2022年,2032年达到碳排放高峰;②三国能源强度和碳排放强度都趋于下降,中国波兰两国下降速率较快,美国下降速率较慢;③未来能源结构中,中国和波兰的能源结构较相似,煤炭比例占绝对优势,其次为石油,天然气,非碳能源;美国的能源结构较为合理,石油占比最大,其次为煤,天然气和非碳;④中、美、波三国人均碳排放量差距较大,美国人均碳排放量在三国最高,但三国人均碳排放量最终都呈下降趋势;⑤在欧盟目标下,中,美,波三国碳排放总量降幅并不明显,而在哥本哈根会议背景下,中国完全能提前实现碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%这一目标。而基于2005年的碳排放水平,2050年中国要实现减排50%的难度非常大。美、波两国如不实施减排措施,其碳排放量将保持上升,实现目标的难度将更大。
As carbon emissions trends affect the future trend of climate change, but also the basis for countries to negotiate the reduction of emissions, it has been the general public and government attention. In this paper, we use the carbon emission dynamics model to predict the energy carbon emissions of China, the United States and Poland from 2009 to 2050 at different levels of economic development. We also conduct a scenario analysis of the total carbon emissions of the three countries. The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions in all three countries show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, and the peak of carbon emission in China, the United States and the United States reached the peak in 2035, 2022 and 2032, respectively; (2) Both the energy intensity and the carbon intensity of the three countries tend to decrease, The rate of decline in the United States is relatively slow; ③ In the future energy structure, the energy mix in China and Poland is relatively similar, the proportion of coal accounts for the absolute predominance, followed by that of oil, natural gas and non-carbon energy; the energy structure of the United States The proportion of oil is the largest, followed by coal, natural gas and non-carbon. (4) The carbon emissions per capita in China, the United States and the United States differ greatly. The per capita carbon emission in the United States is the highest in the three countries. However, The decline in the total carbon emissions of China, the United States, and the wave countries is not obvious under the EU’s goal. In the context of the Copenhagen conference, China can fully achieve the goal of reducing carbon emission intensity by 40% -45% from 2005 aims. And based on the level of carbon emissions in 2005, it will be very difficult for China to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2050. If the United States and Poland do not implement emission reduction measures, their carbon emissions will keep rising and the difficulty of achieving the goal will be even greater.