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随着民航事业的迅速发展和空中交通流量的不断增长。为有效地避免空管不安全事件的发生,辨识出空管运行中潜在危险源至关重要。目前空管单位缺乏对危险源的有效分类,对危险源的触发机制要素界定不够清晰。利用危险三角形对危险进行描述,并用MSHEL模型对空管运行中首类危险源——管制“错误、遗忘、疏漏”的触发机制进行分类辨识与分析。构建了管制“错误、遗忘、疏漏”危险源辨识指标体系,一级指标5个,二级指标20个;运用灰色关联分析法计算出各类触发机制之间的关联系数和关联度。结果表明,人的因素是导致管制“错误、遗忘、疏漏”发生的最主要因素,而其中最主要的触发机制要素是个人能力问题。
With the rapid development of civil aviation and the continuous growth of air traffic. In order to effectively avoid the occurrence of air traffic control unsafe incidents, it is very important to identify the potential dangers in ATC operation. At present, air traffic control units lack effective classification of dangerous sources, and the definition of the triggering mechanism of dangerous sources is not clear enough. Using hazard triangles to describe the hazard, and using the MSHEL model to identify and analyze the triggering mechanism of the first category of hazard control - “mistake, forget, omission” in ATC operation. Constructed a control “error, forgotten, omission ” hazard identification system, five indicators of a level, 20 indicators of the second level; using the gray correlation analysis method to calculate the correlation coefficient and correlation degree between various trigger mechanisms. The result shows that the human factor is the most important factor leading to the “wrong, forgotten, omission” control, and the most important triggering mechanism element is the personal ability problem.