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目的基于2000-2013年陕西省交通能源消费数据,探讨影响陕西省交通能源消费碳排放变化的因素及其贡献率,为实现低碳交通提供理论参考。方法测算分析交通碳排放量,运用LMDI分解方法构建交通能源碳排放因素分解模型,对陕西省交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析。结果 (1)交通能源碳排放总量总体上呈逐年上升趋势,随着碳排放强度明显下降,在2013年实现负增长;(2)2000-2013年间除第三产业增加值的累积效应为正值外,能源结构、能源强度、交通运输业经济份额的累积效应均为负值;(3)从逐年效应来看,第三产业增加值对交通碳排放增加有最大的拉动作用,能源强度效应则有较强的抑制作用。结论可以通过保持交通运输业合理的经济份额,提高能源利用率,加快能源结构调整来减少交通碳排放。
Aim Based on the data of traffic energy consumption in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2013, this paper explores the factors influencing the carbon emissions of transport energy consumption in Shaanxi Province and its contribution rate, and provides a theoretical reference for the realization of low-carbon traffic. Methods The carbon emissions of transport were calculated and analyzed, and the decomposition model of transport carbon emission factors was constructed by using LMDI method. The influencing factors of transport carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province were quantitatively analyzed. Results (1) The total amount of transport energy carbon emission increased year by year as a whole, negative growth was realized in 2013 as the carbon emission intensity decreased significantly; (2) The cumulative effect of additions to the tertiary industry during 2000-2013 was positive (3) From the year-by-year effect, the added value of the tertiary industry has the greatest pulling effect on the increase of transportation carbon emissions, while the energy intensity effect A strong inhibitory effect. Conclusion It is possible to reduce transportation carbon emissions by maintaining a reasonable economic share of the transportation industry, improving energy efficiency and accelerating energy structure adjustment.