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超载阈值是资源环境承载能力监测预警体系构建中的关键因子,其确定是当前资源环境承载能力评价方法研究中的重点和难点问题。本文首先分析了资源环境承载能力超载阈值的定义和内涵,结合国内外研究进展和国家发改委下发的《资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法(试行)》,分析目前海洋资源环境承载能力评价采用的超载阈值确定方法及潜在的问题。试行方法主要是从海洋功能区划及环境质量标准的合规性,以及指标多年变化情况确定超载阈值,对资源环境保护与社会经济发展的关系协调考虑较少,评价方法的创新性以及评价结果的管理效能还较弱。本文还从海洋资源环境对于社会经济发展的限制性分析视角,探索构建区域差异性指标体系和更具科学性及管理适用性的超载阈值确定新思路。
Overload threshold is the key factor in the construction of resource and environment carrying capacity monitoring and early warning system, and its determination is the key and difficult issue in the current research on resource and environment carrying capacity. This paper first analyzes the definition and connotation of the overload threshold of resources and environment carrying capacity, combined with the research progress at home and abroad and the “Technical Methods of Monitoring and Early Warning of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity (Trial)” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, analyzes the current assessment of carrying capacity of marine resources and environment Overload threshold determination method and potential problems. The pilot approach is mainly to determine the overload threshold from the compliance of marine functional zoning and environmental quality standards and the changes of indicators over many years, and to take into consideration less coordination of the relationship between resources and environmental protection and socio-economic development, the innovativeness of evaluation methods and the evaluation results Management effectiveness is still weak. Based on the restrictive analysis of marine resources and environment for social and economic development, this article also explores the establishment of a new indicator system of regional differences and a more scientific and manageable application of overload threshold.