论文部分内容阅读
针对水文频率分析过程中因模型选择和数据资料短缺引起分析结果不确定性问题,基于Bayesian MC-MC模型,将史料记载的定性洪水资料应用于水文频率分析中,并以西江流域梧州水文站为例进行洪水频率分析。结果表明,数据资料长度对水文频率分析结果的不确定性影响很大,且该模型应用于水文频率研究不仅可定量评估分析结果的不确定性,还可利用历史特大洪水信息有效降低分析结果的不确定性。
Aiming at the uncertainty of the analysis results caused by the model selection and data shortage in the hydrological frequency analysis process, based on the Bayesian MC-MC model, the qualitative flood data recorded in the historical data was applied to the hydrological frequency analysis. The Wuzhou Hydrological Station in the Xijiang River was Example for flood frequency analysis. The results show that the length of data has a great influence on the uncertainty of hydrological frequency analysis results, and the application of the model to hydrological frequency research not only can quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of the analysis results, but also can effectively reduce the analysis results by using the historical flood information Uncertainty.