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考虑煤炭价格的约束,通过非线性回归模型,分别检验了内蒙古煤炭资源发展的“资源诅咒”与“资源尾效”效应。结果显示:内蒙古经济增长与煤炭资源依赖度之间的关系呈倒“U”型,曲线的拐点为煤炭工业产值占GDP的比重达到15.61%,2011年内蒙古已跨越该拐点,处于“资源诅咒”的临界状态;由于“资源尾效”的存在,1990年以来内蒙古经济增长率年均损失0.66个百分点。因此应关注煤炭价格波动引起的产业风险并通过集约化发展道路来释放由于“资源尾效”损失的增长率并规避“资源诅咒”。
Considering the constraint of coal price, the “resource curse” and “resource tail effect” effect of coal resources development in Inner Mongolia were respectively tested by nonlinear regression model. The results show that the relationship between economic growth and coal resource dependence in Inner Mongolia is inverted. The turning point of the curve is that the output value of the coal industry accounts for 15.61% of the GDP, and in 2011, Inner Mongolia has crossed this inflection point, Resource curse “; since 1990, Inner Mongolia’s economic growth rate has lost an average of 0.66 percentage points per year due to the existence of” resource end effect. “ Therefore, we should pay attention to the industrial risks caused by coal price fluctuations and release the growth rate of losses due to ”resource tailings “ and avoid ”resource curse " through intensive development.