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普遍看法认为,理想的升值起步时间应该是在5月份中美战略与经济对话前后,在年底之前通过双向波动,使人民币兑换美元达到6.5高盛首席经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔(JIMO'NEILL)又猜错了.他本预计中国最早将在4月19日当周允许人民币升值2%至5%,不过直至本刊截稿的4月25日,事情仍未发生.“,”After the Chinese exchange rate system reform in July 2005.the currency exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar had increased by an accumulated 21%during the following three years.With the financial crisis in July 2008.Yuan appreciation was suspended,with its exchange rate to the Dollar fixed at 6.8:1. Wang Tao.Chief Economist at UBS-China predicts that the Yuan exchange rate will gradually increase after the second quarter,and reach somewhere between 6.4-6.5:1 by the end of the year. Wang Qi.the Asian-Pacific Regional Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley foresees that the Yuan may appreciate by 2%-3%during the summer or early third quarter and by an accumulative 4%-5% within this year. Wang Qin.Chief Economist at JP Morgan China commented that“if China does not take action within two months,then no matter how the US government tries to explain it.external parties like the US Congress will impose trade penalties on China via bills.So,there is not much time left to appreciate the Yuan.”