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政府和国企的紧密关联以及政府对国企未来盈亏承担的救助责任和政府融资平台的扩张,强化了我国财政政策的非李嘉图性质。根据FIPL理论现值预算方程,债务总额前定条件下,家庭对国企的盈余预期决定当期物价水平,而股票市场主要由国企组成,因此股价主要反映国企盈余预期,此时股价与物价负相关。由于家庭消费行为在需求层面即时影响CPI,而债务投资形成的产能扩张在供给层面逐步影响PPI,因此推导出CPI领先PPI的结论。基于结构突变点检验,发现:2002年4月~2005年1月、2009年7月~2012年3月这两个区间股价与物价的走势比较符合理论描述。
The close relationship between the government and state-owned enterprises and the government’s responsibility to rescue the surplus and loss of the state-owned enterprises and the expansion of the government financing platform have strengthened the non-Ricardian nature of China’s fiscal policy. According to the present value of the FIPL theory budget equation, under the precondition of total debt, the expected earnings of the home state-owned enterprises determine the current price level, while the stock market is mainly composed of state-owned enterprises. Therefore, the stock price mainly reflects the expected earnings of state-owned enterprises when the stock price is negatively correlated with the price. As household consumption behavior immediately affects the CPI at the demand level, and the capacity expansion caused by debt investment gradually affects the PPI at the supply level, we conclude that the CPI leads the PPI. Based on the structural mutation point test, it is found that the trend of price and price between April 2002 to January 2005, July 2009 to March 2012 are in line with the theoretical description.