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生态环境因子动态预测是区域生态环境质量动态演变预测的基础。通过对影响煤矿区生态质量的16个指标因子的筛选,建立了自然环境、生态环境及社会经济三维体系下由年开采量等7个指标组成的煤矿区生态环境质量预测指标体系;结合阜新煤矿区生态环境特点,建立了煤矿区生态环境指标因子灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型。根据2003—2012年阜新煤矿区生态环境指标因子环境统计数据,采用数值拟合得出开采量、埋藏深度、地面塌陷面积/开采面积、煤尘爆炸指数、矿区居民人均GDP及矿区经济贡献率6个指标因子的Quadratic模型与年降水量的指数模型。应用煤矿区生态环境指标因子灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型和拟合模型分别对阜新煤矿区2003—2012年煤矿区生态环境进行了指标因子动态演变预测。结果表明,Quadratic模型和指数模型的预测误差相对较小,煤尘爆炸指数指标因子的预测拟合曲线决定系数最高(R2=0.96726)。最后应用Quadratic模型和指数预测模型对2013年阜新煤矿区生态环境指标因子进行了预测,并结合矿区实际环境状况给出了预测模型的适用性。
Dynamic prediction of ecological environment factor is the basis of dynamic evolution prediction of regional ecological environment quality. Through the selection of 16 index factors that affect the ecological quality of coal mines, the index system for predicting the eco-environmental quality of coal mines is established, which is composed of seven indicators of annual production under natural environment, ecological environment and socio-economic three-dimensional system. Combining with the Fuxin Coal Mine The ecological environment characteristics of the district were established, and the gray system GM (1,1) forecasting model of eco-environmental indicators in coal mining area was established. According to environmental statistics data of eco-environmental factors in Fuxin coal mine from 2003 to 2012, the mining quantity, burial depth, ground subsidence area / mining area, coal dust explosion index, average per capita GDP of mining area and economic contribution rate of mining area 6 Quadratic Model of Index Factors and Index Model of Annual Precipitation. Based on gray (GM) (1,1) prediction model and fitting model of gray system of ecological environment index in coal mine area, dynamic changes of ecological environment in coal mine area in Fuxin coal mine from 2003 to 2012 were predicted. The results show that the prediction error of Quadratic model and exponential model is relatively small, and the coefficient of predictive fit of the index of coal dust explosion index has the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96726). Finally, Quadratic model and exponential prediction model are used to predict the eco-environmental factors of Fuxin coal mine in 2013, and the applicability of the prediction model is given according to the actual environmental conditions in the coal mine.