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基本观点●2009年5月,CPI、PPI同比增速仍处低位,通货紧缩风险犹存。但是,CPI显露低位启稳迹象,PPI环比小幅上涨,物价下降程度较前期有所缓和,通缩风险减弱。●年初以来,市场对通货膨胀的预期抬头。近段时间,在国内货币信贷高速增长、资产价格较快上涨、全球初级产品价格上涨以及部分产品价格反弹四大因素的共同作用下,通胀预期陡然升温。●我们认为,目前尚未形成实质性的通胀压力,短期内通货膨胀的可能性亦不大。此外,在当前国际、国内形势下,过度担忧通胀不仅缺乏充分依据,也不利于经济恢复增长的进程。●2010年尤其2010年下半年以后,通胀风险可能明显上升。长期应对通胀保持警惕,防止通胀风险再次抬头。
Basic view ● May 2009, CPI, PPI year-on-year growth rate is still low, deflation risks still exist. However, the CPI showed signs of a steady easing at a low level, with the PPI slightly higher than the previous month. The price decline was moderated from the previous month and the risk of deflation was weakened. ● Since the beginning of the year, the market is expected to see a rise in inflation. Recently, with the rapid growth of domestic monetary credit, the rapid rise of asset prices, the rise of global primary commodity prices and the rebound of some product prices, the inflation expectancy has suddenly risen sharply. ● In our view, there has not yet been any substantial inflationary pressure and inflation is unlikely in the short term. In addition, in the current international and domestic situations, over-worrying inflation is not only a lack of sufficient evidence, nor is it conducive to the process of economic growth recovery. ● In 2010, especially after the second half of 2010, the inflation risk may rise significantly. Long-term response to inflation vigilance to prevent inflation risks rise again.