稻纵卷叶螟是我县水稻上三大害虫之一,常年发生5～6代。其中第一代蛾在4月中、下旬即有始见,但虫量极少,普通年份均未有明显的发生。故该虫全年的主要虫源是来自于第二代的迁入,该代蛾的迁入主峰早的年份可在5月底,迟的年份则可在7月上旬。由于第一代与第二代在发生上缺乏直接的联系,因此第二代的测报上往往就只能依靠逐日田间赶蛾,不能作出提前的预报;无法及时地指导防治,被动性较大,现根据本站1970年至今的有关的测报数据,试运用平稳时间序列法(自回归法)和多元逐步回归分析法组成二个预报工具,以对我县稻纵卷叶螟第二代的迁入要素作早期预报,用于指导大田赶蛾等测报工作,试探对迁 Rice leaf roller is one of the three major pests on rice in our county, perennial occurred 5-6 generations. Among them, the first generation of moths began to see in mid-April and late-mid-season, but the amount of insects was extremely low, and no obvious occurrence occurred in ordinary years. Therefore, the main source of insects throughout the year is from the second generation of immigrants, the generation of moths moving into the main peak of the early years can be at the end of May, later years may be in early July. Due to the lack of direct connection between the first generation and the second generation, the second-generation survey reports often can only rely on field-by-field field moths and can not make advance forecasts; they can not timely guide prevention and control and are relatively passive. Now based on this station from 1970 to date, the relevant test data, the trial use of stationary time series method (autoregressive method) and multiple stepwise regression analysis method to form two forecasting tools, in order to my county rice leaf roller second-generation move Into the elements for early forecasting, used to guide fields such as moth and other newspaper work, to test the move