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·房屋成交量和新开工房屋面积回落·我们通过模型预测未来房屋库存;只有房屋成交量大幅攀升,库存才有可能清空·目前政策更趋体现出扶持2014年4月份不会是中国房地产市场最难熬的一个月,未来几个月房地产市场形势将更加严峻,4月份数据显示房地产市场仍然低迷:4月份住宅新开工面积同比下降18.1%(图1),这将造成下半年投资增长放缓。房地产投资同比增幅放缓至15.5%。
· Volumes of housing and newly-started housing fell back down · We use models to predict future inventory of houses; inventory is likely to clear up only when the volume of housing is soaring · Policies are now showing more supportive April 2014 Will not be the Most Real Estate Market in China In the tough month, the real estate market will become even more harsh in the next few months. The data in April showed that the real estate market is still in the doldrums. The newly started residential area in April dropped 18.1% YoY (Figure 1), which will slow down investment growth in the second half of the year. Real estate investment growth slowed to 15.5% YoY.