近一段时间,国内扩大内需叫得不响了,声音越来越弱。似乎是因为世界经济看好,特别是美国经济继续高涨,东亚经济正在复苏,所以我国内需拉动可以让位于出口拉动了。其实不然!第一,我国出口前景仍不容乐观。北美(主要是美国)和东亚(主要是日本)是我国最重要的出口地区。不管美国“新经济”多么美妙,两大阴影始终伴随着它。一是前些年财政赤字积累的5万多亿美元的国债余额。虽然近年美国财政状况开始好转,国债余额不再增大,但偿还这巨额国债没有几十年时间是不行的,而每年须付的2千多亿美元的国债利息也是不轻的财政负担。二是还在增大的外贸赤字,其潜在危害比现实危害更大。据估计,美国去年外贸赤字将高达3千亿美元,但外资流入仅2千亿美元。如何弥补这1千亿美元的缺口是一个难题。增发货币和抽回对外投资都不可取,看来 Recently, domestic demand for expanding domestic demand is not loud, the voice is getting weaker. Seems to be optimistic about the world economy, especially the U.S. economy continues to rise, the East Asian economy is recovering, so pulling our domestic demand can make export-oriented. In actual fact, first, China’s export prospects are still not optimistic. North America (mainly the United States) and East Asia (mainly Japan) are the most important export areas in our country. No matter how wonderful the United States is in its “new economy,” the two shades are always accompanied by it. The first is the balance of more than 5 trillion U.S. dollars in accumulated deficits in previous years. Although the U.S. fiscal balance has started to improve in recent years, the balance of government bonds will no longer increase. However, it will not be possible to repay this huge amount of government bonds for several decades. However, the interest of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars in treasury bonds payable each year is not a small financial burden. Second, the current trade deficit is still growing. Its potential harm is more harmful than the reality. It is estimated that the U.S. foreign trade deficit will reach as high as 300 billion U.S. dollars last year, but foreign inflows have only reached 200 billion U.S. dollars. How to make up for this $ 100 billion gap is a dilemma. It is not advisable to issue additional currency and withdraw foreign investment. It seems