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南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为“较低”。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。
South-North Water Diversion Project is currently the largest water diversion project in China. With the construction and operation of the project, the risk problem caused by the uncertainty problem has drawn more and more attention. The risk analysis of the project operation is also placed in front of the managers. How to identify, assess, reduce and control the occurrence of the risk becomes the key problem of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project An important issue in operation. This paper introduces Bayesian network theory to the comprehensive risk analysis of South-to-North Water Diversion Project for the first time. Taking the Baoying Pumping Station in the Eastern Line Project as the research object, the probability of the comprehensive risk of operation in Baoying Station is 0.025% using the Bayesian network reasoning function. The risk The level of occurrence is “lower”. Using the method of scenario analysis, it is concluded that among the factors that affect the comprehensive risk, the comprehensive risk changes most when conditions of management and maintenance of pump station change. Therefore, it needs to pay more attention.