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基本观点2009年第3季度,全球经济呈现出反弹力度“超预期”、风险偏好回归“不完全”、通缩风险与通胀风险并存的整体特征。未来半年,全球经济面临的主要风险包括:金融体系风险尚未出清,超预期反弹蕴藏透支风险,差异性复苏引发结构风险,高额财政赤字引发主权风险,以及通胀风险从隐性风险渐变为显性风险。为应对风险,我们判断,全球将进行“有进有退有协调”的政策调整,有序退出超常规刺激政策,适时跟进促进中长期稳健增长和结构优化的政策,并通过积极的国际间协调,缓解政策冲突的负面影响。展望明年,资源型经济体、通胀风险较大的经济体和部分金融体系较为健康的新兴市场经济体将先行加息,美欧日可能于稍晚时候相继加息,但不排除其提前加息的可能性。
The basic point of view In the third quarter of 2009, the global economy showed a rebound force “over expectation ”, risk appetite regression “imperfect ”, the overall characteristics of the deflation risk and inflation risk co-exist. In the coming six months, the major risks facing the global economy include: the risk of the financial system has not yet been cleared; the rebound beyond expectation holds the risk of overdraft; structural risks from differential recovery; the sovereign risk arising from high fiscal deficits; and the gradual change of inflation risk from recessive risk to significant Sexual risk. In order to cope with the risks, we judge that the world will carry out the policy adjustment of “interdependence, reversion and retrenchment”, withdraw from unconventional stimulative policies in an orderly manner, timely follow up the policy of promoting sound and long-term steady growth and structural optimization, and adopt positive International coordination to ease the negative impact of policy conflicts. Looking forward, resource-based economies, emerging economies with higher inflation risks and emerging market economies with some healthier financial systems will raise interest rates ahead of schedule. However, the United States, Europe and Japan may raise interest rates one after another but do not rule out early rate hikes The possibility of.