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冲突信息系统是一个复杂的、不确定的动态变化系统,随着时间的转移,冲突信息系统呈现不同的状态,并表现为马尔科夫链特性。为了描述和解决此类冲突问题,本文首先定义了动态冲突系统、局中人间的冲突度、系统冲突度、局中人结盟等概念,进而基于马尔科夫链,构建了一种动态冲突分析模型,进而利用其分析动态冲突信息系统的状态转变及冲突系统的稳定性,最后以案例验证了模型的有效性与适用性。
Conflict information system is a complex and uncertain system of dynamic change. As time goes on, the conflict information system assumes different states and manifests itself as Markov chain characteristics. In order to describe and solve such conflicts, this paper first defines the concepts of dynamic conflict system, conflict degree between people in the bureau, degree of system conflict, and the alliance among managers, and then builds a dynamic conflict analysis model based on Markov chain , And then use it to analyze the state transition of dynamic conflict information system and the stability of conflict system. Finally, the validity and applicability of the model are verified by a case study.