<正>I inquire into the possibilities for racial change during the next quarter century in the US.My argument proceeds in three stages.First,I review the accounts of past racial and ethnic shifts and argue that they are incomplete.Based on social-boundary theory,I claim that non-zero-sum mobility combined with the ability to convert mobility into proximity to mainstream whites were essential to the successful assimilation of previous racial/ethnic outsiders such as the Irish.Next, I ask whether the condition of non-zero-sum mobility might exist in the present and near future. My positive answer relies on data that show increasing minority penetration into the top tiers of occupations in the US and the prospect that diversity will grow there as the largely white baby boom cohorts retire.In the final stage,I ask what contingencies that might affect the extent to which these opportunities for change are fulfilled.