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在研究股市泡沫经济中,关键的问题是如何估计股价的真实价值。现有文献通常认为股价的残差服从非正态分布,但是目前对在此基础上构建估计股价真实价值模型研究尚未取得实质性突破。本文利用数理统计理论,提出了一种新的基于非正态分布泡沫经济模型。进而,考虑到股市泡沫受股票投机者心理的影响,提出了结合实验经济学的实验分析方法,建立了基于非正态分布股市泡沫经济实验模型。
In the study of the stock market bubble economy, the key question is how to estimate the true value of stock price. The existing literature usually considers the residuals of the stock price to follow the non-normal distribution, but at present, no substantial breakthrough has been made in building the real value model of the estimated stock price. In this paper, we use the theory of mathematical statistics to propose a new non-normal distribution bubble economic model. Furthermore, considering that the stock market bubble is influenced by the psychology of stock speculators, this paper puts forward the experimental analysis method of experimental economics, and establishes the experimental model of the bubble economy based on the non-normal distribution of the stock market.