国有股不同减持方式对流通股内在价值的影响研究

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长期以来,我国政府一直将在股票市场上发行上市作为国有大中型企业解困脱困的重要途径。在这种主导思想的作用下,经过十余年的积累,我国境内现有上市公司中国有控股企业占绝大多数。当初在制定中国股票市场的政策规划时,是以计划经济为主体,政府在股票市场的产生中发挥主要作用,按照持股主体性分类基础上将股份划分为流通股与非流通股,有其历史必然性。时至今日,我国证券市场经过十余年的发展,取得了巨大的成就,在今天以市场经济为主体的时代,这种划分已经不再适应当今实际,股权分裂带来信息严重不对称、内部人控制以及客体非理性等不良现象已经严重阻碍了我国股市的正常发展。我国政府已经认识到股份全流通是历史的必然选择,并于2001年6月13日,由国务院发布《减持国有股筹集社会保障资金管理暂行办法》,中国证券市场国有股减持进人正式实施阶段,该方案虽然最终以失败告终,却明确表明了国有股减持的方向是正确的,问题是在以哪种方式减持、怎样定价等。这几年来,关于国有股的减持方案有多种观点,其中中国证监会关于国有股减持的方案就有配售类方案、基金类方案、预设未来流通权方案、权证组合操作方案、股权调整类方案、开辟第二市场类方案等;中国人民大学金融与证券研究所(冈)国有股减持方案;韩志国的国有股减持方案、林义相有关国有股的减持方案等,此外,有关国有股减持的代表性观点还有李荣融有关国有股减持的观点、刘纪鹏有关国有股减持的观点、李青元有关国有股减持的观点、许小年有关国有股减持的观点、华生有关国有股减持的观点等.每种方案都具体论述了国有股减持的方式及如何定价问题,但均未对每种减持方式对流通股内在价值的影响作出系统分析。在此基础上,本文作者指出,不同的减持方式对股票的内在价值影响不同,并对其中部分减持方式对国有股内在价值的影响作了具体分析,得出总股本数量变化影响股票的内在价值,减持价格制约投资价值NPV,NPV的大小是评判投资价值的标准。 For a long time, our government has been going public in the stock market as an important way for the state-owned large and medium-sized enterprises to get out of their difficulties. Under the influence of this dominant ideology, after more than ten years of accumulation, there are over 50% of the controlled Chinese-owned enterprises in the existing listed companies in China. When formulating the policy planning of the Chinese stock market, it took the planned economy as its main body. The government played a major role in the emergence of the stock market. According to the classification of the holding entity, the government divided the shares into non-tradable shares and non-tradable shares Historical inevitability. Today, after more than ten years of development, the stock market in our country has made tremendous achievements. Nowadays, with the market economy as the main body, the division is no longer suitable for today’s reality. The division of ownership brings about serious asymmetric information. The internal Human control and the irrationality of objects and other adverse phenomena have seriously hindered the normal development of China’s stock market. On June 13, 2001, the State Council issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Reducing the State-owned Shares to Raise Social Security Funds, and the reduction of state-owned shares in China’s securities market entered the official implementation phase Although the plan eventually ended in failure, it clearly indicated that the direction of the state-owned shares reduction was correct. The question was whether to reduce the holdings and how to set prices. Over the past few years, there have been various opinions on the plan of reducing state-owned shares. Among them, the plans of reducing the shares of state-owned shares of China Securities Regulatory Commission include placing class plans, fund plans, plans for future liquidity rights, warrants portfolio operating plans, equity adjustment plans Plans to open up the second market class programs; Renmin University of China Institute of Finance and Securities (Gang) reduction of state-owned shares; Han Zhiguo state-owned shares reduction plan, Lin Yixiang relevant state-owned shares reduction plan, in addition, the reduction of state-owned shares Li Rongrong’s views on reduction of state-owned shares, Liu Ji-peng’s view on reduction of state-owned shares, Li Qingyuan’s view on reduction of state-owned shares, Xu Xiaonian’s view on reduction of state-owned shares, and Watson’s view on reduction of state-owned shares. The programs all discussed the ways of how to reduce the state-owned shares and how to fix the prices. However, none of them made a systematic analysis of the impact of each reduction method on the intrinsic value of tradable shares. On this basis, the author points out that different reduction methods have different effects on the intrinsic value of the shares, and the impact of some of the reduction methods on the intrinsic value of the state-owned shares is analyzed in detail. The value of reducing the price of investment NPV NPV, the size of the NPV is to judge the value of investment standards.
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