论文部分内容阅读
依据陕西省4个定点单季稻农气观测站长期观测数据、87个单季稻地理分布数据和14个与单季稻生长有关的环境指标(8个气候指标、4个土壤指标和3个地形指标)数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析模块与最大熵模型(MaxEnt),建立陕西省单季稻种植适宜性分布模型,对单季稻在陕西省的种植分布和适宜性进行预测。研究表明:单季稻最适宜种植区(适宜系数P≥0.69)面积为8 949.24km2;适宜种植区(0.38≤P<0.69)面积为21 637.68km2;边缘适宜区(0.07≤P<0.38)面积为73 351.66km2,不适宜区(P<0.07)面积101 804.22km2,陕西省单季稻生长区域狭窄,对生态环境要求苛刻,其中适宜种植区域主要集中在陕南的河谷川道、关中盆地的渭河冲积平原区域,适宜区内土层肥沃、水土资源好,土壤pH为弱酸性到中性,地形平坦、海拔高度为230~800 m。ROC曲线的AUC=0.916,表明预测结果可信度高。影响陕西省单季稻种植分布的主要环境指标有≥10℃积温(贡献率28.97%)、年降水量(贡献率25.99%)、年平均气温(贡献率16.87%)、海拔(8.27%)、年日照时数(5.66%)和年湿润指数(4.12%),陕西省单季稻最适宜区环境参数为≥10℃积温4 865℃·d、年降水量762mm、年平均气温15℃、海拔436m、年日照时数1 573h和年湿润指数1.6。结果显示基于最大熵模型与ArcGIS构建的种植适宜性分布模型可以准确地对陕西单季稻的种植适宜性做出科学综合评价。
According to the long-term observation data of four fixed-point single-cropping cropping stations in Shaanxi Province, the data of 87 single-cropping rice and 14 environmental indices (8 climatic indices, 4 soil indices and 3 topographic indices) related to the growth of single cropping rice, ArcGIS spatial analysis module and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to establish the model of suitability distribution of single cropping rice in Shaanxi Province. The distribution and suitability of single cropping rice in Shaanxi Province were predicted. The results showed that the area of the most suitable planting area for single cropping rice (P≥0.69) was 8 949.24km 2, the suitable planting area (0.38≤P <0.69) was 21 637.68km 2, and the area of suitable margin (0.07≤P <0.38) was 73 351.66km2, and unsuitable area (P <0.07). The area of single-cropping rice in Shaanxi Province is narrow and has strict requirements on the ecological environment. The suitable planting areas are mainly located in the valley of the Chuan River in southern Shaanxi, the Wei River alluvial plain of the Guanzhong Basin, Appropriate for the region fertile soil, soil and water resources, soil pH is weak acid to neutral, flat terrain, elevation of 230 ~ 800 m. The AUC of the ROC curve is 0.916, indicating that the prediction result is highly reliable. The main environmental indicators affecting the distribution of single cropping rice in Shaanxi Province are: ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature (28.97% contribution), annual precipitation (25.99%), annual average temperature (16.87%), elevation (8.27% (5.66%) and annual wetting index (4.12%). The most suitable environmental parameters for single-cropping rice in Shaanxi Province are the temperature of ≥ 8 ℃, the temperature of 48 ℃, the annual precipitation of 762mm, the annual average temperature of 15 ℃, the elevation of 436m, Hour 1 573h and annual wetting index of 1.6. The results show that the model of suitability distribution based on maximum entropy model and ArcGIS can make a scientific and comprehensive evaluation of the planting suitability of single cropping rice in Shaanxi Province.