轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤危险因素探讨及风险列线图模型的建立

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目的:探讨轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤的危险因素及建立风险列线图模型的临床意义。方法:回顾性分析湖北医药学院附属东风医院2017年1月至2018年12月诊治的247例轮状病毒性肠炎患儿的临床资料,按照是否发生心肌损伤分为心肌损伤组(158例)与无心肌损伤组(89例),调取所有患儿基本信息资料,采用单因素分析和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤的独立危险因素,利用R软件建立风险列线图模型,并对风险列线图模型的精准度和区分度进行验证。结果:单因素分析结果显示,年龄、呕吐、重度脱水、电解质代谢紊乱、酸中毒和心电图异常是轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤的危险因素(n P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄在6个月至1岁(n OR=1.989,95% n CI 1.123~3.524)、呕吐(n OR=2.509,95% n CI 1.405~4.480)、重度脱水(n OR=2.782,95% n CI 1.083~7.142)、电解质代谢紊乱(n OR=1.655,95% n CI 1.011~3.007)及酸中毒(n OR=2.417,95% n CI 1.348~4.332)是轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤的独立危险因素(n P<0.05)。风险列线图模型显示具有较好的预测能力,同时使用Bootstrap内部验证法对该风险列线图模型进行验证,C-index指数为0.736(95%n CI 0.704~0.768)。n 结论:年龄在6个月至1岁、呕吐、重度脱水、电解质代谢紊乱及酸中毒是轮状病毒性肠炎伴心肌损伤的独立危险因素,相关风险列线图模型的建立有利于临床人员筛查高危人群和制定相关防治措施。“,”Objective:To explore the risk factors of rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury and the value of establishment of a risk map model.Methods:The clinical data of 247 patients with rotavirus enteritis in Dongfeng Hospital of Hubei University Medicine from January 2017 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into the myocardial injury group(158 patients) and the non-myocardial injury group(89 patients) according to the happening of myocardial injury, and the basic information of all patients was retrieved. Independent risk factors for mycotic enteritis with myocardial injury were analyzed by univariate analysisand multiple Logistic regression analysis.A nomogram prediction model was established using R software, and the accuracy and discrimination of the nomogram model were verified.Results:The univariate analysis showed that the age, vomiting, severe dehydration, electrolyte disturbance, acidosis, and abnormal electrocardiogram were the risk factors of rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury (n P < 0.05). The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the age ranged between 6 months and 1 year ( n OR = 1.989, 95% n CI 1.123-3.524), vomiting (n OR = 2.509, 95% n CI 1.405-4.480), severe dehydration (n OR = 2.782, 95% n CI 1.083-7.142), electrolyte disturbance (n OR = 1.655, 95% n CI 1.011-3.007) and acidosis (n OR = 2.417, 95% n CI 1.348-4.332) were independent risk factors for rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury (n P < 0.05). The collinear chart prediction model established showed that it had good prediction ability. At the same time, the collinear chart model was verified using Bootstrap internal verification method. The C-index index was 0.736 (95% n CI 0.704-0.768) indicated that the column of the line graph model had good accuracy and discrimination.n Conclusions:Ages from 6 months to 1 year, vomiting, severe dehydration, electrolyte disturbance, and acidosis are independent risk factors for rotavirus enteritis with myocardial injury. The establishment of a related nomogram predictive model is helpful for clinical personnel to screen high-risk populations and has guiding significance in prevention and treatment measures.
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