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为解决不确定环境中危险货物运输风险分析问题,针对风险数值分析等方法无法识别构成风险的主要因素和次要因素,无法获得因素重要度,以及不能揭示风险因素与风险之间的因果关系等问题,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险货物运输风险分析方法。首先将原始样本进行属性约简和规则约简,获得各个属性的重要度,识别影响危险货物运输安全的主要因素和次要因素;然后,通过对原始样本进行实例推理,推导出危险货物运输事故规律;最后通过算例验证模型和算法的有效性。结果表明,道路的平纵曲线半径是影响危险货物运输安全的最重要因素,其次是驾驶员因素和运输车辆因素。
In order to solve the problem of risk analysis of dangerous goods transport in uncertain environment, we can not get the importance of factors and can not reveal the causal relationship between risk factors and risk, because the methods of risk numerical analysis can not identify the main factors and secondary factors that constitute risk Problem, put forward the risk analysis method of dangerous goods transportation based on rough set theory. Firstly, the attribute reduction and rule reduction of the original samples are carried out to obtain the importance of each attribute and identify the main factors and secondary factors that affect the transport safety of the dangerous goods. Then, the case-based reasoning of the original samples is carried out to deduce the dangerous goods transportation accident Finally, an example is given to verify the validity of the model and the algorithm. The results show that the vertical and horizontal curve radius of the road is the most important factor that affects the safety of dangerous goods transport, followed by the driver factor and the transport vehicle factor.