论文部分内容阅读
出口是促进我国经济较快增长的重要因素。我们利用投入产出模型测算,2002～2007年出口总额对我国总产出的贡献率逐步加大,年均为28.6%。在世界金融危机中,我国近期进口萎缩快于出口。初步预计,2009年我国出口将大体保持2008年的规模,进口比2008年下降5%～10%,导致“衰退型顺差”扩大,使净出口对 GDP 增长的贡献度提高,但与总出口对总产出的实际贡献下降相背离。根据测算,尽管净出口增长,但出口总量下降对总产出增长的拉动作用将明显减弱。
Export is an important factor in promoting a rapid economic growth in our country. Using the input-output model, we estimate that from 2002 to 2007, the contribution of total exports to China’s total output gradually increased, with an average annual rate of 28.6%. In the world financial crisis, China’s recent imports have shrunk faster than exports. It is estimated that in 2009, China’s exports will generally maintain the scale of 2008, while imports will drop by 5% -10% over 2008, resulting in the expansion of the “recessionary surplus” and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth. However, The actual contribution of exports to total output declined in the opposite direction. It is estimated that although the net export growth will increase, the impact of the decline in the total export volume on the growth of total output will be significantly weakened.