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在分析我国稻谷收购市场和大米批发市场在2009年1月1日至2015年6月1日样本期间价格波动特征的基础上,对市场结构、市场波动与价格传递之间的关系进行理论分析,提出解释“稻强米弱”现象的研究假说,并运用DCC-MVGARCH(1,1)模型对假说进行验证。研究结果发现:市场结构差异是稻米市场价格波动差异的主要原因,也是“稻强米弱”现象出现的根源;稻米市场之间的弱关联效应导致两市场的价格波动无法有效传递,这种纵向市场之间的分割进一步加强了这一现象。
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuation during the sample period from January 1, 2009 to June 1, 2015 in China’s paddy rice market and rice wholesale market, the author makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between market structure, market volatility and price transmission, The research hypothesis of explaining the phenomenon of “strong rice and weak rice” was proposed and the hypothesis was validated by the DCC-MVGARCH (1,1) model. The result shows that: the difference of market structure is the main reason for the difference in price of rice market and also the root cause of the phenomenon of “weak rice and strong rice”; the weak correlation effect between rice markets leads to the price fluctuation of the two markets can not be effectively transmitted; The division between vertical markets further reinforces this phenomenon.