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目的研究厦门市翔安区手足口病的流行特征并探讨SARIMA模型拟合手足口病发病趋势预测的可行性。方法利用SPSS软件对翔安区手足口病的发病情况进行流行病学分析,通过取自然对数、差分等方法对手足口病月发病数序列进行平稳化,然后进行模型参数的估计、检验,最优模型的筛选,最后进行预测分析。结果 2011-2014年,翔安区手足口病的年平均发病率为231.40/10万,4-7月份和9月份有两个发病高峰,病例主要分布于5岁以下儿童,占所有病例数的93.89%;病原构成以其他肠道病毒为主,占43.8%,其次为Cox A16占31.4%,EV71仅占27.8%;SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)12较好地拟合了厦门市翔安区手足口病的月发病数据,预测效果良好。结论厦门市翔安区手足口病的发病率较高,可以用SARIMA模型进行短期预测,进而指导各项防控措施。
Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Xiang’an District of Xiamen City and to explore the feasibility of SARIMA model in predicting the incidence of HFMD. Methods Epidemiological analysis was made on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang’an District by using SPSS software. The monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was normalized by means of natural logarithm and difference, and then the model parameters were estimated and tested. The optimal model of screening, the final prediction analysis. Results The annual average incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang’an District was 231.40 / 100,000 in 2011-2014. There were two peak incidences in April-July and September. The cases were mainly distributed in children under 5 years old, accounting for all cases 93.89%. The pathogen was mainly composed of other enterovirus, accounting for 43.8%, followed by Cox A16 accounting for 31.4% and EV71 accounting for 27.8%. SARIMA (0,1,0) (1,1,0) 12 was better The monthly incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiang’an District of Xiamen City were fitted to predict the effect. Conclusion The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease is high in Xiang’an District, Xiamen City. The SARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction, which can guide the prevention and control measures.