本文对邓自立、郭一新的自适应滤波方法进行了研究。针对其直接应用于水文系统存在的问题,进行了修正和处理。然后结合水流运动时变参数扩散波方程,进行流域水文预报。预报结果表明,算法和模型不仅简单易行,参数和初值稳定,而且能达到满意的预报精度,便于实用。 In this paper, Deng Zili and Guo Yixin’s adaptive filtering methods are studied. In view of the problems that are directly applied to the hydrological system, the problems were corrected and dealt with. Then combined with the time-varying parameter diffusion wave equation of water flow, the hydrological forecast is carried out. The forecast results show that the algorithm and the model are not only simple and easy, but also have stable parameters and initial values, and can achieve satisfactory forecasting accuracy, which is convenient and practical.