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为了改善发电厂碳捕集系统投资价值评估的适应性和可靠性,结合碳捕集系统风险投资的期权特征,基于实物期权理论提出了碳捕集系统最佳投资时机决策数学模型。在考虑了系统投资决策的不可逆性和可延迟性以及碳价和碳减排成本的不确定性的基础上,得出了投资时机临界值和开发发电厂碳捕集系统的最优投资策略。数值算例分析表明,该模型合理地评估了风险投资的机会成本,最大限度地挖掘了系统的潜在价值。与传统净现值评估方法进行对比,该方法克服了净现值法低估风险价值的缺陷,有效地指导了碳捕集系统风险投资时机的选择,而不是做出立即投资或者是选择不开发的简单决策。该模型为发电厂碳捕集系统的投资提供了量化分析的数学工具和科学的参考依据。
In order to improve the adaptability and reliability of the investment valuation of carbon capture system in power plants, the optimal investment timing decision-making mathematical model of carbon capture system was proposed based on the real option theory combined with the option characteristics of venture capital in carbon capture system. Based on the irreversibility and delay of system investment decision and the uncertainty of carbon price and carbon emission reduction cost, the critical moment of investment timing and the optimal investment strategy for developing carbon capture system in power plant are obtained. The numerical example shows that the model reasonably evaluates the opportunity cost of venture capital and maximizes the potential value of the system. Compared with traditional net present value assessment method, this method overcomes the defect that NPV method underestimates the value of risk, and effectively guides the choice of timing of venture capital investment in carbon capture system, instead of making immediate investment or choosing not to develop Simple decision. The model provides a mathematical tool and scientific reference for the quantitative analysis of the investment of power plant carbon capture system.