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对自然灾害的风险分析，核心是对某一指标进行概率密度估计。本文首先对不完备样本的密度估计方法——信息扩散方法进行了修正，通过计算机仿真证实了修正后的模型提高了估计精度。在此基础上，应用修正后的模型对湖南省农村种植业水灾进行了风险分析，建立了自然灾害风险评估模型，并通过绘制风险等值线图，直观地展示了全省农村种植业的水灾风险分布，以及随着灾害程度增大的风险的空间变化趋势。
The core of risk analysis of natural disasters is to estimate the probability density of a certain index. In this paper, the density of incomplete samples, the method of information diffusion, is modified. The computer simulation verifies that the modified model improves the estimation accuracy. Based on this, the risk model of flood disaster in rural farming in Hunan Province was established by using the revised model, and a natural disaster risk assessment model was established. By mapping the risk contour map, the flood disaster of rural farming in the province was visually demonstrated Risk distribution, and the spatial variation of risk as disaster levels increase.