论文部分内容阅读
高密度人群、瓶颈的存在(大量人员滞留积聚)、组织协调问题以及交流、决策问题等决定了人群聚集系统的脆弱性和复杂性。结合博德(Bird)事故因果连锁理论,对大型群体性活动事故案例的分析表明,风险意识不足激化了人群聚集系统的脆弱性,是各类事故发生的根源;由事前风险计划不完善引起的组织管理失误是各类事故发生的根本原因,在直接原因——现场突发事件的触发下,各因素之间的相互作用最终导致预控措施失灵。考虑到各触发因素之间的相互影响,需要尽可能保证风险计划对不利因素有一定弹性与包容性。可从安全意识、人群干预、组织管理、技术分析以及态势感知与沟通等五方面讨论风险计划包容性的实现路径。
The existence of high-density population, bottlenecks (accumulation of a large number of staff), organizational and coordination issues and communication and decision-making issues determine the vulnerability and complexity of the crowd aggregation system. Combined with the Bird accident causal chain theory, the analysis of large-scale group events shows that the lack of awareness of risk aggravates the vulnerability of the crowd aggregation system and is the root cause of all kinds of accidents. Due to the imperfect pre-risk plan Organizational errors are the root cause of all kinds of accidents. Under the direct cause - triggered by emergencies on the spot, the interaction between various factors finally leads to the failure of pre-control measures. Taking into account the interaction between the triggers, the need to ensure, as far as possible, the risk plan has some flexibility and tolerance of unfavorable factors. We can discuss the implementation path of risk planning inclusiveness from the five aspects of safety awareness, crowd intervention, organizational management, technical analysis and situational awareness and communication.