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[目的]为棉铃虫的有效防治提供理论依据。[方法]通过采用数学、天气学和生物学方法,根据西华县32年来有关虫情与气象资料,建立棉铃虫季月发生发展趋势气象预测模型,研究棉铃虫发生程度与降雨量的关系。[结果]凡6~8月3个月累计降雨量达500mm以上的年份,棉铃虫发生都轻;3个月累计降雨量在400 mm以下的年份发生严重。经相关分析,不同时段的雨量大小与该虫发生程度呈显著的负相关关系。各时段雨量与相应代次棉铃虫发生程度负相关极为密切,均达显著水平,尤其是6~8月雨量与年发生程度、四代发生程度,7月份雨量与三、四代及年度发生程度负相关均达极显著标准。[结论]棉田棉铃虫发生季节的降雨量是制约该虫发生程度的关健因素。
[Objective] The research aimed to provide a theoretical basis for effective control of cotton bollworm. [Method] By using mathematical, weather and biological methods, a weather forecasting model was established based on the past 32 years’ history of insect and meteorological data in Xihua County to study the relationship between the occurrence of cotton bollworm and rainfall. [Result] The occurrence of cotton bollworm was light all the year with accumulated rainfall of 500 mm in the 3 months from June to August. The cumulative rainfall of 3 months was below 400 mm. Correlation analysis showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the rainfall amount and the degree of occurrence of the insects in different periods. The correlation between the rainfall and the occurrence of the cotton bollworm was very close, reaching significant levels, especially the rainfall and annual occurrence from June to August, the occurrence of the fourth generation, the rainfall in July, the third and fourth generations and the annual occurrence Negative correlation reached a very significant standard. [Conclusion] The seasonal rainfall of cotton bollworm was the key factor to restrict the occurrence of the insect.