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步入2011年,笔者认为全球经济的增长势头趋向平稳,不过市场的波动可能加剧。超常规货币政策的退出、主权债务危机的衍变、G3国家与新兴市场国家政策上的背驰、美元汇率的大幅波动,均可能给市场带来变数。笔者看来,2011年至少有三大“地雷”。
Into 2011, I believe that the global economy tends to steady growth momentum, but market volatility may increase. The withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy, the evolution of sovereign debt crisis, the divergence of G3 countries’ policies with emerging market countries and the sharp fluctuations of the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar may all bring about changes to the market. In my opinion, there are at least three big “mines” in 2011.