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目的探索网络MSM人群估计方法,估计深圳市的MSM交友QQ群活跃用户规模,指导深圳市艾滋病防治资源配置和制定MSM人群干预策略。方法使用捕获-再捕获方法和随机对深圳市10个MSM交友QQ群进行调查,估计QQ交友软件深圳本地活跃MSM人群的数量。结果两次调查共捕获3 393人,第一次捕获1 519人,第二次捕获1 874人,两次捕获均接受标记人数280人。深圳市活跃QQ群交友软件的MSM约10 141人(95%CI:9 716~10 567)。结论深圳市MSM交友QQ群的活跃用户已经接近实体场所内活跃的MSM数量,需要重视网络活跃MSM人群的干预工作。
Objective To explore the method of network MSM population estimation, estimate the scale of active users of MSM QQ group in Shenzhen, guide the allocation of AIDS prevention and treatment resources in Shenzhen and formulate the strategy of MSM crowd intervention. Methods Using the capture-recapture method and the random survey of ten MSM dating and QQ groups in Shenzhen, we estimated the number of active MSM populations in QQ dating software Shenzhen. Results A total of 3 393 people were caught in the two surveys, of which 1 519 were first caught, 1 874 were caught for the second and 280 were both caught. About 10 141 MSMs (95% CI: 9 716 ~ 10 567) were active in Shenzhen QQ Group. Conclusion The number of active MSM friends and QQ groups in Shenzhen is close to the number of active MSMs in the physical places. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the intervention of the network active MSM population.