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本文以1978-2006年31个省份为样本,利用面板数据模型研究政府支出与居民消费的关系。总量影响结果表明,政府财政支出对居民消费呈现弱“挤入”效应;结构效应分析表明,基础设施建设支出和企业挖潜改造支出对居民消费产生“挤出”效应,支农支出和科教文卫支出对居民消费产生“挤入”效应;最后的区域差异显示,越是贫穷地区,居民消费对可支配收入的依赖程度就越高,越是富裕地区,政府投资性支出对居民消费的“挤出”效应越大,消费性支出对居民消费的“挤入”效应越明显。
In this paper, from 1978-2006, 31 provinces as a sample, using panel data model to study the relationship between government spending and household consumption. The results of the total impact show that the government fiscal expenditure shows weak “crowding-in ” effect on the household consumption. The structural effect analysis shows that the spending on infrastructure construction and enterprises’ tapping the potential for rebuilding and upgrading have a “crowding-out” effect on household consumption, Expenditure and science, education, and health expenditures have a “crowding in” effect on household consumption. The final regional disparity shows that in more impoverished areas, residents’ consumption relies more on disposable income. In the richer regions, government investment The greater the effect of expenditure on residents’ consumption, the more obvious the effect of consumer spending on household consumption.