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土地利用变化是引起碳排放的重要原因之一,土地经济效益是利用土地的目标之一,如何通过优化土地利用结构实现土地利用减碳增效是值得研究的重要问题。基于系统结构与功能相互作用的视角,梳理复杂系统内变量间的反馈关系,运用系统动力学(SD)进行建模,将约束条件纳入到多目标规划(MOP)中,实现MOP与SD模型整合,进行系统仿真并得出优化后2020年湖北省土地利用结构。结果显示,利用SD-MOP模型能够实现减碳增效目标下土地利用结构优化,与2008年真实值相比,耕地、林地、牧草地及建设用地分别增加了0.33×10~4、30.17×10~4、0.08×10~4和16.37×10~4 hm~2,其他农用地及未利用地分别减少7.23×10~4、33.15×10~4 hm~2;与无约束SD单模型仿真相比,土地利用碳排放量减少了58×10~4 t,经济效益年增长率维持在3.58%,优化方案具有可行性。SD-MOP模型优化的土地利用结构符合区域可持续发展要求,兼顾了土地利用碳减排和经济效益增长的双重目标,能为区域土地资源优化配置提供参考。
The change of land use is one of the important causes of carbon emission. The economic benefit of land is one of the goals of using land. How to realize carbon reduction and efficiency increase of land use by optimizing land use structure is an important issue worthy of study. Based on the interaction between system structure and function, combing the feedback relationship among variables in complex system, modeling with system dynamics (SD), incorporating constraints into MOP and integrating MOP with SD model , The system simulation and the optimization of land use structure in Hubei Province after 2020. The results show that the land use structure optimization under the goal of carbon reduction and efficiency can be achieved by using the SD-MOP model. Compared with the actual value in 2008, the cultivated land, forest land, pasture land and construction land increased by 0.33 × 10 ~ 4 and 30.17 × 10 ~ 4,0.08 × 10 ~ 4 and 16.37 × 10 ~ 4 hm ~ 2, respectively. Other agricultural land and unused land decreased by 7.23 × 10 ~ 4 and 33.15 × 10 ~ 4 hm ~ 2, The land use carbon emission decreased by 58 × 10 ~ 4 t and the annual economic growth rate maintained at 3.58%. The optimization scheme is feasible. The land use structure optimized by SD-MOP model accords with the requirements of sustainable development in the region, taking into account the dual goals of reducing carbon emissions and increasing economic benefits of land use, which can provide reference for the optimal allocation of land resources.