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本文从财政政策的角度解释中国CPI与PPI的相对动态特征。通过将异质性居民与企业以及借贷约束引入到动态随机一般均衡模型中,我们发现财政政策扩张会通过偏向性地带动生产资料企业产能,从供给侧抑制其价格水平。同时,借贷约束的存在使得此类企业能够更为容易地获得配套资金,从而导致其产能进一步扩张,使PPI相对于CPI持续下降。鉴于此,本文认为“财政政策—信贷—产能过剩”这一机制是理解我国在全球金融危机之后通货膨胀动态的关键。
This article explains the relative dynamic characteristics of China’s CPI and PPI from the perspective of fiscal policy. By introducing heterogeneous residents and enterprises and borrowing constraints into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we find that the expansion of fiscal policy can bias the production capacity of enterprises of production materials and restrain their price levels from the supply side. At the same time, the existence of borrowing constraints makes it easier for such enterprises to receive matching funds, resulting in further expansion of their production capacity and a continuous decline in the PPI relative to the CPI. In view of this, this paper argues that the mechanism of “fiscal policy - credit - overcapacity” is the key to understanding our country’s inflation dynamics after the global financial crisis.