本文用可见半面树冠球果估测法,调查了江西上甘山林场、峡江林木良种场和信丰林木良种场种子园杉木的单株球果产量,建立了一系列单株球果产量预测模型。同时对预测模型的适用性进行了探讨,认为某一地点的预测模型有可能在其它地方应用。但在单株结实量很高的林分,该估测法准确率低些。 In this paper, we measured the yield of single coniferous seed of Chinese fir plantation in Shanglin Mountain Forest Farm, Xiajiang Forest Farm and Xinfeng Forest Seed Farm in Jiangxi Province by using the half-crown crown cones estimation method. A series of prediction models of per plant yield were established . At the same time, the applicability of the forecasting model is discussed, and it is considered that the forecasting model of a locality may be applied in other places. However, the accuracy of this method is lower in the stand with higher plant stand.