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为评价北京市空气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病急诊就诊人数的影响,采用基于时间序列的半参广义相加模型,在控制了长期趋势、“星期几效应”及气象因子等混杂因素的影响后,分析2009-2011年北京市空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病入院人数的暴露—反应关系,并按上呼吸道感染(上感)和下呼吸道感染(下感)分层建立模型.结果表明,污染物有一定的滞后效应,NO_2在当天或滞后2 d,SO_2在滞后2 d,PM_(10)在滞后2 d或4 d使得呼吸系统疾病急诊就诊人数的相对危险度(RR)值达到最大,其中SO2、NO2和PM_(10)浓度每增加10μg/m~3,对应的呼吸系统疾病全人群的RR值及95%置信区间(CI)分别为:1.0114(95%CI:1.0077~1.0183),1.021 3(95%CI:1.0150~1.021 3)和1.011 3(95%CI:1.0049~1.0173).同时还发现,大气污染物对上感的影响比下感明显.
In order to evaluate the impact of air pollution on the number of emergency visits for residents with respiratory diseases in Beijing, a semi-parametric generalized additive model based on time series was used to control the impact of long-term trends, the “day of the week” and meteorological factors Then, the exposure-response relationship between air pollutants and respiratory diseases in Beijing from 2009 to 2011 was analyzed and stratified by upper respiratory tract infection (upper sensation) and lower respiratory tract infection (lower sensation). The results showed that the pollution The results show that the relative risk (RR) of the number of emergency department visits of respiratory system reaches the maximum when NO_2 is on the same day or lagged for 2 days, SO_2 is lagged for 2 days, and PM 10 is delayed for 2 days or 4 days. The RR and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the whole population of corresponding respiratory diseases were 1.0114 (95% CI: 1.0077-1.0183) for every 10 μg / m 3 increase of SO 2, NO 2 and PM 10 concentrations, (95% CI: 1.0150 ~ 1.021 3) and 1.0113 (95% CI: 1.0049 ~ 1.0173) .It was also found that the effect of air pollutants on the flu was more obvious than the flu.