美国复苏再投资法案驱动的刺激支出显然已经失败。经济依然没有回到强劲的增长轨道上。然而,许多专家学者和政策制定者依然鼓吹继续增加政府开支。本文从理论和实证方面都说明了财政刺激有效的证据非常薄弱,在短期收益并不确定但一定会有巨大的长期成本的情况下,政府支出刺激政策显得极不合理。 The U.S. recovery and reinvestment-law stimulus spending apparently has failed. The economy still has not returned to a strong growth track. However, many experts and scholars and policymakers still advocate continuing to increase government spending. This paper shows both the theoretical and the empirical evidence that the evidence of effective fiscal stimulus is very weak. Under the circumstances that the short-term returns are not certain but there will be huge long-term costs, the government spending stimulus seems unreasonable.