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基于标准差椭圆模型、重心模型和地理偏离指数等方法,以县级行政区划为基本研究单元,定量分析了1985-2015年间中国县级行政区划的空间变动状况,进而分析县级政区演化的内在规律。研究表明:三十年间,县级政区变动经历了均衡设置阶段、县级市主导阶段和市辖区主导阶段;市辖区的变动轨迹呈现出“沿海”-“沿江”-“沿大城市群”变动的特征,县级市为“东中部”-“西部、沿边”的变动特征;新增的县级市和市辖区分布日益分散,向北和向西偏移的趋势明显;市辖区和县级市设置的变动方向呈现出明显的负相关关系,市辖区设置多为地理中心偏向,县级市设置多为省会偏向;最后,提出了县级政区的优化思路。
Based on the standard deviation elliptic model, the center of gravity model and the index of geographical deviation, the paper takes county-level administrative divisions as the basic research units and quantitatively analyzes the spatial variation of the county-level administrative divisions in China from 1985 to 2015, and then analyzes the evolution of county-level administrative divisions Internal rules. The research shows that in the thirty years, the changes of county-level administrative regions have undergone the stage of equilibrium setting, the leading stage of county-level cities and the leading stage of municipal districts; the changing track of municipal districts shows “coastal” - “ Along the metropolitan area ”, the county-level cities are characterized by changes in the“ eastern ”,“ western ”and“ border areas. ”Newly distributed county-level cities and municipal districts are increasingly scattered in distribution to the north and west The tendency of migration is obvious; the direction of change set by municipal districts and county-level cities shows a significant negative correlation, the municipal districts are mostly set as geographical centers, the county-level cities are mostly provincial ones, and the county-level administrative districts Optimization ideas.