论文部分内容阅读
以1983-2014年长江中游5个水文站实测水文资料为依据,利用Morlet小波和ARIMA模型等方法,系统分析了三峡水库运行下长江中游典型河段水情变化特征及其未来变化趋势.结果表明:三峡水库运行后,长江中游典型河段流量年际变化不显著,年内月分配较明显的趋于均匀化,这是气候波动与以三峡水库为标志的人类活动综合作用的结果;长江中游典型河段径流变化以18~26 a、8~13 a的周期变化较为明显,周期中心分别为22 a和12 a,并存在更小尺度的周期,三峡水库的运行对典型河段径流大尺度的变化周期影响微弱,对小尺度的变化周期产生了一定的影响;总体上,2014年以后典型河段流量将偏丰,并持续若干年.其中枝城站流量将在2014年以后一段时期呈增大趋势,由偏枯期转为偏丰期,大致持续到2017年;沙市、监利、城陵矶、螺山站流量在2011年由偏枯期转入偏丰期之后,一直呈增大趋势,将于2016年左右达到最大值,之后呈减小趋势,但仍将处于偏丰期,大约持续到2018年.
Based on the measured hydrological data of five hydrological stations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 1983 to 2014 and using Morlet wavelet and ARIMA models, the variation characteristics of the water regimes and their future trends in the typical reaches of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the Three Gorges Reservoir are systematically analyzed. The results show that : After the Three Gorges Reservoir is operated, the interannual variation of the flow in the typical reaches of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is not significant, and the monthly distribution tends to be more uniform. This is the result of the combined effect of climate fluctuations and human activities marked by the Three Gorges Reservoir. The variation of runoff in the reach of 18 ~ 26 a and 8 ~ 13 a is more obvious with the periodic centers of 22 a and 12 a, respectively. There is a smaller scale cycle. The operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir has a significant effect on the runoff of large- The impact of the change cycle is weak, which has an impact on the small-scale change cycle. Generally speaking, the flow in the typical reach will be over-abundance after 2014 and will continue for several years, of which the traffic at Zhicheng Station will increase in some period after 2014 The megatrends shifted from the dry-period to the over-abundance period, which lasted roughly until 2017. After the Shashi, Jianli, Chenglingji, and Luoshan stations moved into the over-abundance period in 2011, they increased Will reach a maximum around 2016, after decreasing trend, but will remain overabundant period, it continued until about 2018.