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经济系统中可能存在大型供应枢纽部门或大型需求中心部门,导致了产业网络结构的不对称,这种不对称为部门冲击转化为总产出波动提供了路径。把产业网络模型与灰色关联分析方法相结合,提出一类研究产业网络结构与总产出波动关系的NSPG法,并以中国八省市2007年投入产出截面数据为例对两者关系进行了实例分析。计算结果表明,产业网络需求结构与总产出波动不存在关联关系;产业网络一阶直接供给结构与总产出波动存在较为密切的关联关系,说明一阶直接供给结构对总产出波动存在较为显著的影响;中国西部产业网络结构与总产出波动的关联关系比东部密切,说明产业网络结构不对称程度越大,其对总产出波动的影响也越大。
The possible existence of large-scale supply hubs or large-scale demand hubs in the economic system has led to the asymmetry of the industrial network structure. This asymmetry provides a path for sector shocks to be transformed into aggregate output fluctuations. By combining industrial network model with gray relational analysis method, this paper proposes a NSPG method to study the relationship between industrial network structure and total output fluctuations. Taking the input-output cross-section data of eight provinces and municipalities in China as an example, Case Analysis. The results show that there is no correlation between the demand structure of industrial networks and total output fluctuations. There is a close relationship between the first-order direct supply structure of industrial networks and total output fluctuations, indicating that the first-order direct supply structure has relatively large fluctuations in total output Significant correlation between the industrial network structure and total output fluctuations in western China is more significant than that in the eastern part, indicating that the greater the degree of industrial network asymmetry, the greater the impact on the output fluctuations.