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自由贸易协定的签署与实施是否有力促进了我国对外贸易的发展?已有研究忽视了自贸协定本身的自选择性和引力模型的内生性、非线性,这些问题使已有研究的估计出现了偏差。本文利用Abadie和Imbens(2006)匹配估计就不同类型的贸易协定进行了平均处理效应的非参估计,弥补了已有研究中的不足。研究表明,基于引力方程的OLS估计低估了自贸协定的影响;自贸协定的实施促进了我国对外贸易的发展,其中中国-东盟自由贸易协定的作用最为巨大;自贸协定显著增加了我国与目标国之间的贸易流量,并且其对进口的影响大于出口。
Whether the signing and implementation of free trade agreements have promoted the development of foreign trade of our country? Some studies neglected the intrinsic and non-linear of free trade agreement’s self-selection and gravitation model, which made the estimation of the existing research appeared deviation. In this paper, we use the Abadie and Imbens (2006) match estimate to estimate the average treatment effect of different types of trade agreements and make up for the shortcomings of the existing research. The research shows that the OLS estimation based on gravitation equation underestimates the impact of free trade agreement; the implementation of free trade agreement promotes the development of foreign trade of our country, of which China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement plays the most important role; the free trade agreement significantly increases the impact of our country and Trade flows between target countries, and their impact on imports more than exports.