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本文基于UNDP创立的技术成就指数,测度了21个国家级创新型城市2001-2011年技术成就指数,并利用核密度与马尔可夫链方法,分析21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数分布变动特征与最终稳态分布情况。研究分析得出:样本期内21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数持续增长,但城市间的差距也在不断扩大,并在2006年之后差距扩大有加剧的趋势。长期来看,21个国家级创新型城市技术成就指数演进路径和变动程度相对平缓,最终的稳态分布将是两极弱化,中间强化。对于中高水平组发展的重点是创新环境的塑造与企业创新主体地位的增强;对于低水平发展组发展的重点则是通过政策引导促进区域创新中心的形成与完善;从深圳市在样本期内领先优势持续增强方面,建议国家采用具有可持续性的市场驱动型创新型城市建设模式。
Based on the technology achievement index set up by UNDP, this paper measures the technological achievement index of 21 state-level innovative cities from 2001 to 2011. By using the method of nuclear density and Markov chain, this paper analyzes the changes in the distribution of technological achievements of 21 national innovative cities Characteristics and final steady-state distribution. The research and analysis result shows that during the sample period, the index of technological achievement of 21 state-level innovative cities has continued to grow, but the gap between cities is also expanding. After 2006, the gap widened and intensified. In the long run, the path of technological evolution and the degree of change in technological achievement index of 21 national-level innovative cities are relatively flat. The final steady-state distribution will be weakened and strengthened in the middle. For the middle and high level group, the focus of the development is to shape the innovation environment and enhance the status of the main body of the enterprise innovation. For the development of the low-level development group, the focus is to promote the formation and improvement of the regional innovation center through policy guidance. From Shenzhen, lead the sample period Advantages continue to increase, it is recommended that countries adopt a sustainable market-driven innovation-based city construction mode.