一、研究背景 长期以来,投资需求一直是广东经济增长的重要动力之一,但随着产业布局和结构的发展,当前产业发展的第一次大调整已经基本结束,很多行业的投资只能导致生产能力过剩,以扩大生产能力为结果的固定资产投资空间相对狭小。同时,与我国大多数地区一样,受到我省企业自身技术储备和创新能力不足的制约,以技术进步促进投资转化的时代还没有来临。当然,国内市场容量也是制约投资增长的主要因素,如果没有技术进步的带动,市场容量也不会有质的扩大,况且,消费市场的低迷也制约投资需求的发展。 现利用国际广泛采用的“扩展线性支出系统”(ELES)模型对 I. Background For a long time, investment demand has always been one of the major engines of economic growth in Guangdong. However, with the development of industrial layout and structure, the first major readjustment of industrial development has basically come to an end. Investment in many industries can only lead to There is relatively little room for investment in fixed assets as a result of excess capacity and capacity expansion. At the same time, as in most parts of our country, by the constraints of the province’s own enterprises in their own technical reserves and in their ability to innovate, the time has not yet come to promote investment transformation with technological progress. Of course, the capacity of the domestic market is also a major factor constraining the growth of investment. Without technological progress, market capacity will not be qualitatively expanded. Moreover, the downturn in consumer markets will also constrain the development of investment demand. Now use the internationally accepted “extended linear expenditure system” (ELES) model