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根据黄河上游唐乃亥水文站 1736～ 1998年年径流量丰、枯等级指数资料 ,采用滑动滤波、功率谱分析以及突变分析等方法 ,对其自身的演变规律进行了诊断分析。结果表明 :近 2 60年来黄河上游径流量长期变化的基本特征为丰、枯水交替变化 ,但枯水期持续的时间要长一些 ,2 0世纪 30年代一直到 80年代末是一个来水相对丰沛的时期 ;流量变化表现出明显的 3年和 8年周期 ;在 1934年附近黄河上游径流量发生了由枯水期向丰水期的转变。
Based on the data of annual runoff abundance and dryness index from Tangnaihai hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River from January to September in 1998, the evolutionary rules of its evolution were analyzed by using the methods of sliding filtering, power spectrum analysis and mutation analysis. The results show that the basic characteristics of the long-term variation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent two decades are abundance and dryness, but the duration of dry season is longer. From the 1930s to the late 1980s, a relatively abundant incoming water Period; the change of flow rate showed obvious three-year and eight-year period; in 1934, the runoff from the dry season to the wet season occurred in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.