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作者基于可持续发展经济学的研究视角,采用人类发展指数和生态足迹分别作为衡量福利水平和自然消耗的指标,运用对数平均迪氏分解法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)将中国1980年~2008年的福利水平变化分解为自然消耗因素、生产效率因素和服务效率因素。实证结果表明:(1)自然消耗因素是中国改革开放以来福利水平提升的主导因素,对福利水平的拉动作用整体上在不断增强;(2)服务效率因素是福利水平提升的抑制因素,且抑制作用在逐年加强;(3)生产效率因素无论作为拉动因素还是抑制因素,贡献作用皆小于上述两个因素。分阶段的因素分解结果进一步确认了上述结论。结合中国生态环境现状和可持续发展经济学的国际前沿理论,作者认为中国福利水平提升需要由“自然消耗”型向“效率提升”型转变,并提出了有针对性的建议。
Based on the research perspective of sustainable development economics, the author uses human development index and ecological footprint as indicators to measure the level of welfare and natural consumption, respectively. By using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Changes in welfare levels in 2008 are broken down into factors of natural consumption, productivity and service efficiency. The empirical results show that: (1) The natural consumption factor is the leading factor in improving the welfare level in China since the reform and opening up, and the pulling effect on the welfare level is increasing on the whole. (2) The service efficiency factor is the restraining factor of raising the welfare level, The role of strengthening year by year; (3) the production efficiency factor as a pulling factor or a restraining factor, the contribution is less than the above two factors. The staged factorization results further confirm the above conclusion. Combined with the current situation of China’s ecological environment and the international advanced theory of sustainable development economics, the author believes that the improvement of China’s welfare level needs to be changed from “natural consumption ” type to “efficiency increase ”, and put forward specific suggestions.