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目的应用Ｃｏｘ比例危险度模型，对影响老年人肺癌治疗后生存的可能因素进行多因素分析，并确立治疗后生存预测模型。方法对３１３例老年人原发肺癌初治患者进行了随访，观察１７个指标与老年人肺癌长期生存的关系。采用单因素和多因素分析、拟合曲线分析及残差图检验。结果多因素分析结果显示５个明显影响老年人肺癌预后的因素，其作用强度依次为身体状况、近期疗效、临床分期、年龄和治疗方法。据此计算了每个患者的预后指数（ＰＶ），根据其大小将患者分成５个危险组，结果显示随着ＰＶ的升高生存率逐步下降。结论影响老年人肺癌治疗后生存率的主要因素是身体状况、近期疗效、临床分期、年龄和治疗方法；且随着ＰＶ的升高，其生存率逐步下降
Objective To apply the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze the multifactorial factors that influence the survival of elderly patients after lung cancer treatment, and establish a post-treatment survival prediction model. Methods 313 elderly patients with primary lung cancer were followed up. The relationship between 17 indicators and long-term survival of lung cancer was observed. Univariate and multivariate analyses, fitted curve analysis, and residual plot tests were used. Results Multivariate analysis showed that there were five factors that significantly affected the prognosis of elderly patients with lung cancer. The strength of their effects was physical status, short-term efficacy, clinical stage, age, and treatment. Based on this, the prognostic index (PV) of each patient was calculated and the patients were divided into 5 risk groups according to their size. The results showed that the survival rate gradually decreased with the increase of PV. Conclusion The main factors affecting the survival rate of post-treatment lung cancer in the elderly are physical condition, short-term efficacy, clinical stage, age, and treatment methods; and with the increase of PV, the survival rate gradually decreases.