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利用研究区棉花种植面积和产量相关统计数据,探究研究区棉花种植面积和产量的时空变化特征及单产和面积作用对棉花产量的影响。研究结果表明:(1)近62年来,研究区的棉花种植面积、棉花产量和单产均呈上升趋势,而且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,1949—1985年间增长缓慢,1986—2011年增长迅速。(2)就棉花总产波动来看,单产的作用占42.04%,面积作用占50.96%,在1949—1985年间单产增加对棉花总产量提高的贡献较大,在1986—2011年间棉花种植面积扩大对棉花总产量提高的贡献较大。(3)1985年前棉花种植面积较稳定,波动不大,主要靠挤占粮食作物面积来扩大,1986年之后棉花种植面积扩大迅速,主要途径为开荒造地。(4)棉花市场价格的波动、生产成本的上升、产量的徘徊、生产环境的恶化和品种等直接影响着研究区棉花生产的竞争力和棉农增收。
Based on the statistics of cotton acreage and yield in the study area, the spatio-temporal variations of cotton planting area and yield and the effects of yield and area on the cotton yield were studied. The results showed that: (1) In the recent 62 years, cotton acreage, cotton yield and yield per unit area in the study area all showed an upward trend, and showed obvious stage and volatility. The growth rate was slow in 1949-1985 and increased in 1986-2011 rapid. (2) From the perspective of total cotton production, the role of yield was 42.04% and the area accounted for 50.96%. In 1949-1985, the increase of yield contributed more to the increase of total cotton output. The area of cotton acreage expanded between 1986 and 2011 Greater contribution to increase the total cotton production. (3) Before 1985, the area under cotton planting was relatively stable with little fluctuation, mainly due to the expansion of the area occupied by food crops. After 1986, the area under cotton cultivation expanded rapidly, mainly through land reclamation. (4) The fluctuation of cotton market price, the rise of production cost, the hovering of output, the deterioration of production environment and the varieties directly affect the competitiveness of cotton production and the farmers’ income increase in the study area.