论文部分内容阅读
基于时域组合模型建立了中国北方季风边缘区万象洞及黄爷洞石笋δ18O时间序列的动态模型,并对未来20年的降水变化趋势进行了预测.研究结果表明,时域组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的周期信息,用其拟合实测数据精度较高;用其预测时间序列的变化情况,和现代气象观测记录相吻合,具有一定的可信度.同时通过中国北方季风边缘区树轮的预测结果对比显示,该地区在2012~2013年前后降水最少,随后20年里将呈现先升后降的变化趋势.
Based on the time-domain model, the dynamic models of stalagmiteδ18O time series of stalagmite in Wanxiang and Huangye-dong of northern monsoon margins in northern China were established and the trend of precipitation in the next 20 years was predicted.The results show that the time-domain model is better The periodic information of the time series is extracted and the accuracy of the measured data is high.Using it to predict the variation of the time series coincides with the records of modern meteorological observation and has a certain degree of credibility.At the same time, The comparison of the prediction results of the rounds shows that the precipitation is the least in the region from 2012 to 2013, and will show the trend of first increasing and then decreasing in the next 20 years.